Haitong Strategy: Note that poor fundamentals have affected Hong Kong stocks in some
Source: Stock market strategy. Core indicators: ① The bull market pattern that started in early 19 remains unchanged: the cycle of bull and bear cycles, corporate profits bottomed out, asset allocation is biased towards A shares, and the epidemic only affects staged profits.
② Focus on the initial key point of view of profitability. The technology + securities companies that are in line with the transition direction are expected to take the lead, and the early-stage companies in the technology profit cycle are better, similar to 13 years.
③ The rapid growth following the recent market slump stems from abundant liquidity. It is still necessary to pay attention to the impact of the short-term fundamentals’ poor rise. Hong Kong stocks are already replacing.
Keeping rational in optimism Since February 4th, the A-share market has risen like a rainbow. The Shanghai Composite Index has once again returned above 3,000 points. This is the 46th time. Investors have ridiculed how much they can stay above 3,000 points this time.day?
We have always insisted that the 6th round of the bull market has been opened at 2440 points on the 19/1/4 of the Shanghai Composite Index. We will eventually overlook 3000 points. We are strategically optimistic. We must remain rational during optimism. It is also normal if there are some small twists in the short term after rapid growth.
The bull market pattern has not changed, and the short-term liquidity-driven market bull market pattern has not changed. The epidemic situation is just a disturbance.
Since 2019, we have been committed to the Shanghai Composite Index 2440 points = 055998 points in 1919, which is the starting point of the sixth round of A-share bull market.
This new outbreak of coronary pneumonia suddenly broke out. Once the short-term fundamentals hit, but the three logics of the bull market did not waver, that is, the cycle of bull and bear cycles, corporate profits bottomed out, and major assets were biased toward the stock market. For details, see “Now similar to 2005″-20190217”, “There are three stages of the bull market -20190303”, “” Bull “turns to the sky-2020 A-share investment strategy -20191117”.
Regarding the impact of this epidemic on fundamentals, we reported in “Confidence and Patience-New Crown Pneumonia vs SARS-20200201”, “Industry Demand under the Epidemic: Both Decrease and Increase-New Crown Pneumonia Research Series 1-20200207”,Analysis of the impact of corporate profits-New Crown Pneumonia Research Series 2-20200213 “, as a whole, it is judged that the new crown epidemic mainly affects the fundamentals of the first quarter, but the epidemic situation has a small impact on the substantial fundamental pattern, historically 2, 3The monthly average of the expected proportion of profit is 4.
1%, followed by a gradual hedging policy. It is expected that the growth rate of the company’s net profit will increase significantly each time in the next few quarters, and the expected rebound in performance will remain unchanged.
Although the general pattern of the current bull market has not changed, the pace of the bull market has been affected by the epidemic.
Looking back at the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index since 2440 in 19, we define 2440-3288 points as a bull market rise. The original 3288-2733 point bull market 2 wave adjustment has been fully adjusted. From early August to early December 2733-3040-2857 points belong to the bull market.The three-wave rising early return run was in full swing. On December 3, 19, the spring market at 2857 and the three waves of the bull market gradually started, and the sudden outbreak of the new crown pneumonia disrupted the rising rhythm of the three waves.
Affected by the epidemic, the Shanghai Composite Index plummeted to 2685 points on February 4 and fell below 2733 points, and the adjustment of the bull market 2 waves was extended.
According to the analysis in the previous report, we believe that a high probability of 2685 points is the lowest point of this adjustment.
It was previously judged that the three bull markets began in early December of 1919. It was due to the time and space of the bottom of the inventory cycle at that time. The monthly fundamental data did indeed stabilize and rebound.
Affected by the epidemic, 20Q1 fundamentals will see a second bottom. Originally we judged the net profit of listed companies in 19Q3.
9%, the bottom of the arc rebounded after reaching the bottom, and now affected by the epidemic, the net profit of listed companies in 20Q1 increased, or even did not increase at all, that is, the shape of the fundamentals changed from the arc bottom of 19Q3 to the W bottom of 19Q3-20Q1Of course, we believe that the net profit of listed companies will still pick up after more than 2 quarters, and will gradually reach 10% -12% in 2020, still exceeding 8% in 19 years.
Short-term liquidity drives the market.
Since February 4th, the Shanghai Composite Index has grown rapidly since 2685 points. The GEM Index and the Feng A Index have reached new highs since January 14. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index are also approaching previous highs.
The strength of the market exceeded investors’ general expectations. The reason behind this is that the hedging policy is very strong, especially the liquidity is very abundant.
To cope with the impact of the epidemic, we have proactively promulgated policies to stabilize economic growth.
In terms of fiscal policy, we will increase tax and fee reduction efforts and expand the scale of special debt issuance.
As of February 14, a total of 901 funds for epidemic prevention and control were arranged in the daily budget.
500 million yuan, of which the central financial arrangement 252.
900 million yuan.
On February 11, the Ministry of Finance issued an advance limit of 848 billion U.S. dollars in local debt in 2020, including a reduction of 290 billion U.S. dollars in special debt, and a total of 1 trillion U.S. dollars in special debt.
In terms of monetary policy, gradually open up liquidity through the open market and increase monetary and credit support for the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
Specifically, on February 3 and 4, the transition surpassed expectations to launch open market operations, and gradually expanded liquidity in two days.
7 trillion yuan, and lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate and the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 BP.
On February 17, the MLF operation was performed in advance of 2000 trillion, and the interest rate was reduced by 10 BP. Due to this, the LPR market also fell across the board on February 20, with a one-year period of 4.
05%, 10 BP lower than the previous period, 4 for 5 years or more.
75%, 5 BP lower than the previous period.
A meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on February 21 proposed that a sound monetary policy should be more flexible and appropriate, alleviate financing difficulties and expensive financing, and provide precise financial services for epidemic prevention and control, resumption of production and real economy development.
Under the forecast of combined volume and price, the liquidity during the epidemic period will remain relatively adequate and reasonable.
The 10-year Treasury note matures from 2 on January 23.
99% fell to 2 on February 21.
At 85%, the average dividend yield of 300 Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks in the last 12 months / 10-year Treasury bond maturity yields from 0.
77 rose to zero.
79. At present, the ratio is in the 83% percentile of stock-to-bond yield ratio in the past three years, and the stock market clearly exceeds the bond market.
Stock market liquidity is also very abundant. Since December 19, the size of newly issued partial equity funds has reached 220.4 billion, and the ETF subscription scale has been 96.8 billion yuan.
The rapid market growth since February 4 is somewhat similar to November 2008. The outbreak of the global financial crisis caused the Shanghai Composite Index to plummet to 1664 points. At the beginning of November, a 4 trillion stimulus plan was issued, which significantly reduced growth and cut interest rates. At the time, economic data remainedVery poor, but the stimulus policy will help restore market confidence and ample liquidity will promote rapid market growth.
In the general point of view, pay close attention to promoting the industry. As early as in the annual strategy report “Bull” to turn the corner-2020 A-share investment strategy -20191117, we mentioned that “technology + brokerage” in 2020 is expected to become the current layout industry. The core logic isFundamental data is better. The overall market background in 2020 is profitability driving the rise of the three bull markets, and vertical history. At this stage, the differentiation between industries also stems from the growth of profits, and efforts made in line with the characteristics of the era are more profitable.
The industry direction of the new era is informatization service, and technology + securities companies are similar to the real estate chain + banks in the era of urbanization industry in 05-07.
Since February 4th, technology stocks have performed well. We stated in “Confidence and Patience-New Crown Pneumonia vs SARS-20200201” that technology will lead the rapid growth of the market.
Since then, technology stocks have accumulated a certain increase. Investors are a little hesitant. We think from a perspective. This is still the future direction. Of course, the structure can be balanced. There is another possible industry broker.
Technology: Changing industry direction, from hardware to content, software and application scenarios.
From a macro perspective, technology is the direction of industrial structure transformation.
The focus of the initial industrial policy has shifted to high-end manufacturing, supporting industrial upgrading, expanding 5G, and semiconductor investment.
With the support of national policies, the technology industry has changed from “Internet +”, “Made in China 2025” to “Artificial Intelligence”, “Industrial Internet” to “5G Industry” in recent years, including e-commerce, mobile Internet, cloud computing, big data,The Internet of Things, Industrial Internet and other industries have achieved rapid development in recent years.
From a meso perspective, by the 1980-2000 U.S. stock market and the 2010-2015 A-share technology stock bull market, technology hotspots have also shifted to hardware content and spread to scene applications. The demand for the entire flooded technology industry has expanded, thereby improving performance.
This round of science and technology cycle is driven by software innovation and content development by hardware, that is, the electronics, computer, media, and new energy vehicle industry chain from 19 to 20 years.
(For details, see “Where has this technology cycle come?”
From a micro perspective, the main line of this year’s technology stocks is the front-line leader with better performance.
In the history, the profit recovery cycle of technology companies shows that the performance of large-scale market capitalization technology companies in the early stage has rebounded more significantly, and that of small and medium-sized market capitalization technology stocks have improved in the mid-to-late period.
This year’s technology stock performance recovery trend is similar to 2013. At that time, the big market capitalization technology leaders represented by the GEM index performed better, because the GEM index performance was better at that time, and the GEM index’s return to the mother’s net profit gradually exceeded -9 at 12Q4.
2% rose to 21 in 13Q4.
1%, while GEM (excluding GEM refers to ingredients) from -1.
5% rose to 10.
In the second half of 2014, the performance of small and medium-sized market capitalization technology stocks began to improve, and at the same time M & A, reorganization and reorganization began to be sought after by the market. At this time, the small and medium-sized market capitalization technology stocks performed better.
This round of technology bull market has been going on for more than a year, and some investors are worried that the current estimate is too expensive.
From the perspective of PEG, we estimate that the TMT sector is not high. As the overall net profit growth of some TMT sectors in 2019 is negative, here we use the industry’s 2020 sector forecast net profit to calculate the dynamic PEG level until 2020/02/21In 2020, the TMT industry predicts that PEG is basically between 1 and 3 times, and the specific electronic sector is (2.
9 times), computer (3.
3 times), communication (1.
3 times), the media (1.
Brokers: Golden Reform develops equity financing to support the technology industry.
We have analyzed in “Macro Background: From Large to Strong, Structure First-Current Chinese Economy Compared with the 1980s American Series (1)” and “Finance: Direct Financing to Support Industrial Upgrade-Current China Compared with the 1980s American Series (2)”,China’s economic structure is in urgent need of transformation, similar to the United States in the 1980s. At that time, the two major characteristics of the change in the US industrial structure were the upgrading of manufacturing and the upgrading of consumption. Among them, the expansion of the capital market played an important role in equity financing.
The United States has a well-developed capital market and direct financing to expand its scale. As a result, innovative companies such as Google, Apple, and Facebook have been developed.
However, the current annual direct financing account is relatively low, and the stock financing accounted for 2% of the company’s financial stock in 2019.
9%, while bank loans accounted for 61.
2%, the outsourced loan is 18.
In the past, the financial system dominated by indirect financing had insufficient service capabilities and efficiency for emerging technology industries. As a result, the “BATJ” companies that had grown up locally had gone overseas for listing without A shares.
Therefore, it is expected to reform the system for strategic emerging industries, and the launch of the science and technology board in 2019, which provides multiple financing channels for science and technology industries and promotes the upgrading of the industrial structure.
In order to better serve the real economy, the reform of the Greek financial system has deepened reforms. On February 14, the Securities Regulatory Commission issued new rules for refinancing, which reflects the implementation of financial reform policies, which will increase the leverage ratio of brokers and thereby improve performance.
The enlarged market turnover will help improve the profitability of brokers.
We mentioned in the previous report that the turnover of the three waves of bull market is one wave of one wave.
5 times, the average daily turnover of 1 wave of A shares in this bull market is 630.4 billion yuan, so the corresponding 3 wave of transactions is 1.
Since the beginning of this year, the average daily turnover of A shares was 7,842 trillion, and after the Spring Festival on February 3, it was 8,808 trillion. The daily turnover in the last three transactions has exceeded one trillion.
From a PB-ROE perspective, the brokerage is currently PB1.
8 times, the average since 2005 is 3.
2 times, 21 in history from low to high.
3% quantile, corresponding to 19Q3 ROE-TTM is 6.
0%, in history from low to high 25.
Compared with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 PB, the historical quartile since 2005 is 28.
4%, ROE-TTM historical quantile of 13.
At 6%, securities are above the estimated historical quantiles, while earnings are relatively well-estimated, and their earnings forecasts match better.
From the perspective of fund allocation, the market value of securities accounted for 1 of the 19Q4 fund’s heavy storage stocks.
4%, unchanged from the average since 2013, while the CSI 300 accounted for 7%.
The recent preliminary tracking of the resumption of work and production has passed, and short-term fundamental data may still bring market fluctuations.
Since 2019, we have renewed two judgments: the Shanghai Composite Index’s 2440 points in 1919 = 55 998 points, and the bull market has three stages.
Regarding the impact of this new coronary pneumonia epidemic, we judge the overall pattern of the bull market unchanged, and we are confident.
The rapid growth of A shares since the sharp decline since February 4 is mainly due to the continuous introduction of policies to hedge the epidemic. Liquidity is very abundant, but the market has somewhat worsened the short-term fundamentals.
From the market performance point of view, the A-shares continued their strong performance in the past week, but the Hong Kong stocks began to adjust. The Hang Seng Index started to fall after rising on February 17, and gradually decreased by -1 in the last week.
The strong performance of A shares is due to abundant liquidity and investor sentiment is high. The Hong Kong stock market is dominated by institutional investors. Investors’ short-term fundamentals have triggered adjustments in Hong Kong stocks.
We believe that the market launch pattern after February 4th may be similar to August 6th to early December 19th. The market performance is two steps forward and one step back. This is because the fundamental data has not bottomed out. From December 19 to January 20, the market finally went up.The breakthrough is basically the continuous steady recovery of data from November to December of 19, and the logic of the fundamental recovery has begun to materialize.
At present, the overall economic data shows that the fundamentals are under pressure, and high-frequency data such as power generation and real estate sales have dropped substantially in the same period of previous years.
In terms of land sales, the cumulative transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities in the past three weeks after the 2017-2019 Spring Festival was basically 687?
Between 8.12 million square meters, and the transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities in the three weeks after the Spring Festival this year was only 750,000 square meters, which was about 90% lower than that at the same time after the 19th Festival.
In terms of industrial production, 成都桑拿网 from the perspective of the daily power consumption of the six major power plants, it was maintained at around 40 during the week of February 17-21, while about 70 occurred at the same time after the 19th holiday, a gradual decrease of 42%.
This epidemic has the new characteristics of long incubation period and strong contagion. The epidemic has caused a real impact on short-term economic fundamentals, and the progress of short-term resumption and production is slow. We expect that economic data in February and March may be dragged down.
In addition, the recent overseas epidemic has shown ups and downs. The WHO daily epidemic report shows that a total of 202 new cases of new crown pneumonia have been newly diagnosed outside China from 17:00 to 21:00 on the 21st, and gradually, 1402 cases have been confirmed.The epidemic forecast level has been raised to the highest level, and the number of confirmed diagnoses in Japan, the United States and other regions has increased significantly. The spread of overseas epidemics may weigh on the global economy.
At first glance, we believe that the A-share profit W-shaped bottom, the net profit of listed companies will still rebound after the second quarter, the bull market will gradually enter the three waves of rising logic unchanged.
Extremely track the situation of return to work and production.
The new crown epidemic situation is still complex, and there may be recurrences in the future. Whether the previous hedging policy is effective and whether the fundamental data can be stabilized, it is necessary to track the progress of resumption and production.
On February 21, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee convened a meeting to improve the different prevention and control strategies for different regional conditions, establish an economic and social operation pattern that is compatible with the epidemic prevention and control, and promote orderly resumption of work and production.
At present, most provinces and cities in the country have begun to resume work and production. The 40-day Spring Festival Transport in 2020 ended on February 18, during which the national railways, highways, waterways, and civil aviation sent passengers together.
800 million person-times, a decrease of 50 compared with the same period last year.
From the regional perspective, according to media reports from the provincial bureaus of industry and technology, People’s Daily Online, and other media, a total of 18 provinces and cities across the country have announced the resumption rate of industrial enterprises above designated size, with an average resumption of 55%, of which Tianjin, Heilongjiang, Guangxi, Hunan, Qinghai, etc.The operating rate is less than 50%. Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai, etc. have higher operating rates, reaching about 80%.
From the perspective of the industry, in the industries related to epidemic prevention and control, the daily necessary consumer goods industry, the commerce and trade circulation industry has a higher rate of resumption, and the overall industrial production recovery is low.
According to data from the press conference of the joint defense, prevention, and control mechanism of the State Council, as of February 10, the resumption rate of mask and protective clothing companies in 22 provinces across the country has exceeded 76%, and the rate of resumption of key food production and processing enterprises has reached 95%.
The State Council ‘s joint prevention and control mechanism press conference on February 22 pointed out that the recent resumption rate of the national trade and commerce industry has continued to increase. The opening rate of chain supermarkets has reached more than 95%. The opening rate of large-scale chain fast food restaurants has reached about 90%. The opening rate of chain convenience stores has reachedAbout 80%.
In order to analyze the resumption rate of industrial enterprises, we select some downstream industries such as automotive, machinery and upstream industries such as chemical industry and steel to analyze.
From the perspective of the automotive industry, the operating rate of all-steel tires was 9 in the first week after resumption.
4% rose to 51 in the third week after returning to work.
0%, the operating rate of semi-steel tires from 10.
1% rose to 28.
0%, the overall operating rate of automobile tires is lower than historical levels.
Auto dealers have returned to work less than 20%. According to data released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, as of 16:00 on February 20, a total of 4,661 4S stores were involved in 73 auto dealer groups in various provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, with a comprehensive return to work efficiency of 12.
Among them, the employee return rate is 29.
2%, sales efficiency 7.
4%, after-sales efficiency of 9.
From the perspective of the machinery industry, recently the operating rate of construction machinery and equipment continued to rise to 9.
4%, compared with 42 in the same period last year.
8%. At present, the operating rate of construction machinery and equipment nationwide is still at the same position.
From the perspective of the chemical industry, the upstream PTA plant operating rate remained basically stable, the first after the Spring Festival, two weeks and even a record high at the same time.
From the perspective of the steel industry, the blast furnace started to reset 62 in the third week after the Spring Festival.
7%, which is the lowest position compared to the same period in history and before the Spring Festival.